Where Have All the Signals Gone?

One of the main reasons you haven't heard KL2R much lately is the totally abysmal propagation plaguing us at the high latitudes for months and months.  That coupled with a short summer filled with rain, which hindered any attempt to do major station work outdoors.  There's still that other tri-bander to get up, a 160 vertical to repair, and 80m vertical system...Oh, and WARC antennas to build. And to boot, we're engaged with the North Pole Contest Group to keep KL7RA on the air, plus upgrades.  We've made a few appearances in CW and RTTY contests this winter, but all in all, activity has been very limited.

So let's have a look at a few factors influencing our ability to reach out from the high latitudes. According to my observations in nearly 20 years in Fairbanks. geomagnetic instability results in horribly fickle radio conditions.  The planetary K index (Kp) is used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. It is measured on a scale of 0 to 9.  K-indices of 5 or higher indicate "storm-level" geomagnetic activity. Values of 7 or higher indicate a severe geomagnetic storm.  However, when Kp > 3, we at 65 degrees north have one heck of a time getting out.  We hear stations, but they often do not hear us.  This is particularly true on 20-10 meters.  The turbulence in the ionosphere will open the window for a couple of minutes and then shut for many more.  On 80 and 160, a Kp of 1 or 0 is acceptable, although such conditions are very rare.  The ups and downs are frustrating to say the least.  Nevertheless, it teaches patience.  The effects are less severe at lower latitudes, even in Anchorage or Kenai, which are near 61 degrees north.

When the aurora kicks up, which is associated with a high Kp, absorption is obviously the problem. We can often work stations within the auroral oval; e..g, UA0 or Scandinavia, but getting to W7 is problematic.

A lot of hams religiously watch the planetary A index, or Ap.  The Ap is a measure of the general level of geomagnetic activity over the globe for a given day. A mean, 3-hourly “equivalent amplitude” of magnetic activity based on K index data is computed from 11 Northern and 2 Southern Hemisphere magnetic observatories between the geomagnetic latitudes of 46 and 63 degrees.  For that reason -- the limit of 63 degrees -- the Ap is less applicable to Fairbanks at 65.5 north geomagnetic.  Even better, data from the College, Alaska, observatory are good real-time indicators of conditions.  See plots at the feed for the College Observatory (CMO).  If you are wondering where Alaska is in the contest, you might have a look at this and NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center, which has an excellent dashboard for radio users.  Visit https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/radio-communications

(Almost) All Quiet on the Northern Front

This past week brought a C-class x-ray flare, and the sun sent a coronal mass ejection hurtling toward earth.  The HF prognosis for the first week of August was poor, indeed.  There would be a "solar tsunami" arriving around August 3rd, according to one local headline, while worldwide there were predictions of fantastic auroral displays.  The six-meter gang at the mid-latitudes must have been drooling with anticipation, but HF radio operators inferred a dismal time on the bands.  The HAARP riometer looked grim.  Kp was at 5 and headed upward, plus the aurora scale was pegged at 9.

I would have written off the radio and cleaned the cameras to prepare for the northern lights had it been a week or two later.  The skies at night are still too light to see aurora at 65 North, though.  Instead, I fired up the rig to see what, if anything, I could hear during the onslaught.

I chose to explore 20m around 0200Z, and I heard W1AW with code practice almost ESP-weak.  No other CW signals were audible.  I switched to the 85-foot C3 pointed to Europe, and I noticed  a surprising number of apparently European PSK31 signals.  Although the signals were moderately strong, I could see on the waterfall an unsettling dance of flutter and Doppler.  DM780 could just make out a few prefixes and other tantalizing details.  PSK31 on trans-polar paths is notoriously susceptible to corruption.  I switched to the North American C3 and could begin to see (and decode) several US stations, but copy was still rough. With the Kp index so high, I had little hope of them being able to hear me.  Years of experience have taught me that much.

I quickly scanned the higher bands up through six meters.  I was surprised to hear some weak but readable ZL/VK SSB on 17 meters, but otherwise, they were dead.  Back on 20, I watched the digital waterfall display and saw slightly improving conditions towards the States.  Two very clean PSK signals appeared, which turned out to belong to a VK and a 3D2, both 90-95% readable.  The north-south route was less impacted by the ionospheric turbulence overhead, and I believe grayline enhancement helped things along.  (A short time later I had a nice chat with Aisea 3D2AA and proved the reasonably good path was two-way.)

The signal ID function in DM780 then reported an Olivia 500/16 signal just up the band.  I could barely discern the smeared, faint tones on the waterfall, but I tuned up and changed modes to see what I could monitor.  Lo and behold, it was Peter VE7NBQ having a ragchew with a W5.  Peter had told me of the impressive performance of Olivia earlier in the week, and now I am convinced. As the tones faded from view on my screen, characters continued to print a clean QSO. Olivia's forward error correction makes it far superior to PSK31, and perhaps even CW under some circumstances.  I will have to explore more.